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  • Joe Breitfeller

Boeing Market Outlook Forecasts $9 Trillion in Market Opportunities Over Next Decade

Over the next ten years, the 2021 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) shows $9 trillion in market opportunities in commercial, defense and services, up from $8.5 trillion in 2020. The report also forecasts increased demand for dedicated new and converted freighters.

Boeing's Corporate Headquarters, Chicago, Illinois - Courtesy Boeing

On Tuesday (September 14, 2021), Boeing released their 2021 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO), which forecasts $9 trillion in aerospace market opportunities in commercial, defense and services over the next decade, up from $8.5 trillion in 2020, and an increase over the 2019 pre-pandemic forecast of $8.7 trillion. The new 10-year Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) projects demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes, while Boeing’s 20-year CMO through 2040, projects demand for 43,500 new airplanes valued at $7.2 trillion, an increase in 500 aircraft over the 2020 forecast. While domestic air travel is leading the recovery, Boeing expects that long-haul travel will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.

In Tuesday’s announcement, Boeing’s Chief Strategy Officer, Marc Allen, said,

“As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new global needs, we remain confident in long-term growth for aerospace. We are encouraged by the fact that scientists have delivered vaccines more rapidly than imaginable and that passengers are demonstrating strong confidence in airplane travel.”

Also commenting on the 2021 forecast, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ President and CEO, Stan Deal, said,

“The aerospace industry has made important progress in the recovery, and Boeing's 2021 forecast reflects our confidence in the resilience of the market. While we remain realistic about ongoing challenges, the past year has shown that passenger traffic rebounds swiftly when the flying public and governments have confidence in health and safety during air travel. Our industry continues to serve an essential role of bringing people together and transporting critical supplies.”

Boeing's 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook - Courtesy Boeing

With sustained demand for air cargo related to e-commerce, the 20-year CMO projects that the global air freighter fleet will grow by 70% compared to the pre-pandemic fleet. Passenger traffic is expected to grow an average of 4% annually, unchanged from the 2020 forecast. Boeing projects the commercial fleet will surpass 49,000 airplanes by 2040, with China, Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific each accounting for around 20% of new deliveries, with the remaining 20% in emerging markets. Through 2040, Boeing projects demand for over 32,500 new single-aisle aircraft, approximately equal to the pre-pandemic outlook, and more than 7,500 widebody airplanes, down 8% from 2019.

In the services market, Boeing forecasts a $3.2 trillion opportunity through 2030 with $1.7 trillion in commercial, business and general aviation services and $1.5 trillion in government services.

Speaking on the services market outlook, Boeing Global Services’ President and CEO, Ted Colbert, said,

“Our customers are preparing for growth, and we see fleet modifications and continued parts consumption going hand in hand with the global fleet expansion. This demand will be coupled with the continued adoption of digital tools and services to enhance fleet readiness, reliability and efficiency.”

Boeing further projects the need for 2.1 million personnel required to fly and maintain the commercial fleet over the next 20 years, including 612,000 pilots, 626,000 maintenance technicians and 886,000 cabin crew members.

Boeing (NYSE:BA) is the world’s largest aerospace company and leading supplier of commercial airplanes, defense, space and security systems, as well as global services. The aerospace giant tops the list of the largest U.S. exporters, providing a significant positive impact to America’s annual GDP. Boeing supports government and commercial customers in over 150 countries and employs more than 160,000 team members worldwide. As Boeing continues to deliver for customers, they are committed to their legacy of aerospace leadership in technology and innovation and will continue investing in their people for future growth.

Source: Boeing

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